New Moriana IMS Market Study Released

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October 2009

This new market study from The Moriana Group is an analysis of original research conducted by Moriana in 2009 into the state of the IMS industry. And what key stakeholders actually think and have experienced in terms of IMS industry activity. The resulting report provides a rich set of data from which conclusions can be made regarding real activity and the likely future direction of the industry. We present the original data and draw conclusions from it which can be independently reviewed, allowing the reader to follow our methods, or to derive their own opinions. We have not selected data to support a hypothesis, but rather have included the full results of our research. We hope that this will provide much-needed transparency which will promote further discussion within the industry.

Unique data on the present status and likely future of IMS

The report is 80 pages long, and provides essential information on the future of IMS.

1: Access up-to-date accurate information on the state of the IMS industry in 2009.

Abridged Executive Summary

A key objective of this report was to find out directly from Communication Service Providers (CSPs) as well as other stakeholders in the IMS arena the actual state of play and status of IMS in the telecommunication markets.

For quite some time, IMS has been criticised as over-hyped, over-played, over-done and not wanted over here. Its numerous critics have wished it long gone and its proponents suffering from the down sweep of the hype cycle have had a difficult job defending any future for IMS at all.

Moriana is neither a defender nor proponent of the technology per se. However, we are interested in gauging what the future of IMS might be in the minds of the key stakeholders. This is important: first, as telecom analysts, our job is to move beyond the critical views, the religious debates and the self-interested defenders and try and determine what the reality is within the industry itself; second, an accurate assessment of the state of the IMS industry will help us all understand the future of the industry as well as any likely future investment and commitment to the IMS path.

General findings of the report include:

• IMS appears to be gathering pace
• CSPs are not yet actively seeking differentiation through long tail services
• CSPs cite the lack of ready-to-deploy applications as an impediment to IMS
• 46% of CSPs rely on their primary vendor to provide their IMS architecture
• CSPs will lose out and miss opportunities if they cannot locate the right applications from the right ISVs.

Threats to IMS

• Long IMS sales cycles, are a major impediment to the development of the IMS ecosystem and the adoption of innovative services
• Critics of IMS will be proven correct, unless IMS lives up to its promise to enable CSPs to launch a wide range of services quickly and easily
• Innovation and talent is being wasted across the vendor community through costly trial  processes, and the high cost of selling to CSPs.

IMS Business Case and Internal CSP processes

• The lack of a business case for IMS has been a major issue for the industry
• IMS is more than a technology change. It requires a CSP ‘cultural’ shift that encompasses new partners and a new range of third party application vendors

• Web Services are emerging as a clear favourite
• However, the market is undeveloped. To stimulate this market, wholesale business models also need to be promoted, making use of CSPs unique assets.

Web 2.0

• In general CSPs do not understand how to address Web 2.0 – or how to embrace it
• There is no strong formulation of appropriate strategy and tactics.

CSP strengths

• CSPs are in a unique position to deliver quality and assurance to fixed and mobile clients, and to promote inter-CSP relationships

Lack of IMS applications

• There is a lack of awareness of innovative applications, and applications that are ready to deploy
• Again the real challenge confronting the industry is the need for a cultural shift towards innovation and openness.
• A rich ecosystem has evolved around the IMS industry. Yet many CSPs are unaware of the breadth of applications that are available. The data shows that CSPs need innovative applications, but are not familiar with the vendors, many of whom come from outside traditional CSP channels.tu

Scope of the Report

IMS industry has generated a significant amount of column inches and reports over the last few years. These range from the positive to the negative, but have mostly been focused on two areas:

• Market forecasts and growth; and
• Critical analysis of the IMS model.

Many of these contributions have reflected vested interests from various stakeholder groups. Market forecast data tends to be consumed by vendors attempting to support product development efforts and have less utility to CSPs planning their own investments. In any event, as many observers will note, estimates have had considerable elasticity, ensuring that a true picture is difficult to capture.

Critical analysis has tended to emerge from players that are outside the IMS ecosystem and can reflect different entrenched viewpoints. Similarly, it may also derive from actors who are attempting to carve out their own distinctive voice and viewpoint, often for their own benefit. Such analysis may thus be highly selective.

As such, obtaining clear and transparent information about what is actually happening in the IMS domain has proven problematic. Yet there is a clear need for such information, as evinced by the numerous conferences which still attract large, global audiences and the frequent inclusion of IMS related items in various media channels.

Moriana has adopted a different approach from previous authors. This is neither a market forecast nor a polemic of our received perspective. While we believe that market forecast data is necessary, it is not sufficient to capture the full breadth of activity within the IMS industry, nor is it appropriate to offer conclusions without presenting research that can substantiate them. Such information can rely too much on anecdote and single sources of data. Rather, it is an analysis of original research conducted by Moriana between December 2008 and May 2009 into the state of the IMS industry.

Our intention is to determine what key stakeholders actually think and have experienced in terms of IMS industry activity. The resulting report provides a rich set of data from which conclusions can be made regarding real activity and the likely future direction of the industry. We present the original data and draw conclusions from it which can be independently reviewed, allowing the reader to follow our methods, or to derive their own opinions. We have not selected data to support a hypothesis, but rather have included the full results of our research. We hope that this will provide much-needed transparency which will promote further discussion within the industry.

However, we strongly believe that our conclusions and recommendations stand up to scrutiny. We believe that we have captured data that lends itself to some startling and original conclusions and suggest key lessons for future directions. Of course, this is a commercial report (that is our explicit declaration of interest), but it has been created through recognition that a different approach is required and that Moriana is well placed to provide it. We hope that we have achieved this and welcome input from our readers to stimulate further debate.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

ONE: SDP Market Characteristics

1. Business drivers for SDP adoption
2. Inhibitors for SDP market growth
3. Patterns of Investment in SDPs
4. SDP Investments Drivers
5. SDP Investment Stakeholders

TWO: SDP Market Structure

1. SDP Market Scope
2. SDP Market Stakeholders
3. Vendors of products, solutions and professional services
4. Network Operators
5. Communication Service Providers who do not own a transport network
6. Investors in SDP products and solutions
7. End-users of SDP Services

THREE: SDP Market Segmentation

1. Geographical Market Segmentation
2. Service Provider Type Market Segmentation
3. Segmentation by Classes of Services and Applications

FOUR: SDP Market Size and Forecast

1. Commercial Adoption of SDPs
2. Deployments per Geography and per operator size
3. Deployments per Class of Service and operator size
4. Average sizes of SDP deals and required investment per subscriber
5. SDP Market for 2009-2012
6. Market Evolution
7. Factors influencing the growth of the SDP market
8. 2009-2012 SDP Market Forecast

FIVE: Analysis of Competition in the SDP Market

1. Significance of SDP market for the undertakers
2. SDP Market Maturity
3. Intensity of competition
4. Suppliers means to compete
5. SWOT analysis for SDP suppliers
6. Network Equipment Providers
7. System Integrators
8. IT suppliers
9. Independent Software Vendors
10. Applications Providers
11. Service Aggregators and SaaS/PaaS Providers

SIX: Key findings and Recommendations

1. Key findings from the analyst research
2. Recommendations for Suppliers
3. Recommendations for Service Providers

List of vendors